The Independent National
Electoral Commission (INEC) released the timetable for the 2019 elections in
March this year. The next presidential and National Assembly elections will
hold on February 16, 2019. With only a year and a half to go before the
election, the body language of many prominent politicians, especially in the
two major political parties, is that the battle for the coveted presidential
seat has already begun. Daily Trust on Sunday takes a look at 12 powerful
politicians to watch ahead of the 2019 presidential race.
Muhammadu Buhari
President Muhammadu Buhari
has not declared his interest in seeking a second term but the possibility that
he will do so cannot be ruled out as his loyalists and political associates
have continued to fly that kite with oracular enthusiasm. The Progressive
Governors Forum Chairman, Governor Rochas Okorocha of Imo State, in February
this year reportedly asked his fellows in the South-East not to talk about an
Igbo presidency until after Buhari’s tenure, saying the president has a tenure
to work for four or eight years according to the zoning arrangement of the
ruling APC.
Buhari defeated former
President Goodluck Jonathan during the 2015 elections that was widely adjudged
to be free and fair; thus becoming the first Nigerian politician to defeat a
sitting president through the ballot box. While he is about to complete his
first two years in office as an elected civilian president of Nigeria there is
the big question as to whether or not he would seek re-election. Although he is
yet to declare his intention, the constitution of Nigeria allows a sitting
president to seek re-election after his first term of four years. Having emerged
as president on the mantra of change, Buhari’s major political strength lies in
his incorruptible credentials that have made him very popular among Nigerians,
especially in the North. The fight
against insurgency in the North-East as well as his anti-corruption crusade is
seen as his major achievements in his first term. Serious health challenges since January this
year however cast a big question mark on Buhari’s political future. He has been
out of the country seeking medical attention for most of this year, which has
raised doubts that he will seek another term in 2019. Even if he does not seek
a second term however, the popular incumbent president could be a decisive
factor in determining who flies the APC flag in 2019.
Yemi Osinbajo
Professor Yemi Osinbajo was
a relatively lightweight Vice President around President Muhammadu Buhari’s
overwhelming political personality but his political stock greatly increased
this year when he became the Acting President. An intellectually hefty Law professor
and Senior Advocate of Nigeria and a very eloquent pastor, Osinbajo has
impressed Nigerians during his acting tenure at the top. He does not however
have a political base of his own, being a product of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu’s
political machine to which he has remained a loyal follower. If Buhari does not
seek a second term in 2019, Osinbajo will loom large in APC calculations even
though regional calculations within the party could affect his chances. He must
also contend with the ambitions of Tinubu, who wanted to be Buhari’s running
mate in 2015; he only yielded to the religious factor and nominated Osinbajo
instead. If however Buhari is unable to complete his first term, Osinbajo will
become substantive president and it will thereafter become difficult to stop
him within APC.
Atiku Abubakar
A former Vice President for
eight years, Atiku Abubakar is a political heavyweight in Nigeria with
considerable political machinery especially in Northern Nigeria. Atiku, who
never hides his presidential ambition, had contested the 2007 presidential
election on the platform of the defunct Action Congress (AC) after realizing
that he could not get the PDP ticket because of his frosty relationship with
then President Obasanjo. Atiku also contested for the PDP presidential ticket
against President Goodluck Jonathan in 2011. He again vied for APC’s ticket in
2014 against President Buhari, finishing third at the Lagos convention.
Could 2019 be his year? The
action, body language and utterances of the Waziri of Adamawa are enough to
show seriousness. In the past year Atiku suddenly became a vocal voice for
restructuring. This is seen as a strategy to woo the South-South and
South-East, regions where Buhari is not popular. In the North, Atiku’s strategy
is to insist on a “power shift” to the North East. He has been saying since
1999 that the North West has marginalised the North East in top political
offices. Those strategies are backed by very deep pockets and one of the
greatest determinations in Nigerian politics. Atiku celebrated his 70th
birthday recently and his renewed determination probably stems from a
calculation that 2019, when he will be 72, is his last chance.
Atiku’s political reputation
over the years has been harmed by his frequent change of political parties in
pursuit of his presidential ambition. In the run up to 2019, it is possible
that he may again return to PDP. He is already laying grounds for that because
last week he attacked APC as a party without internal democracy.
Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu
Former two-term governor of
Lagos State, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu is one of the biggest power brokers in
Nigerian politics, the effective political leader of the South West states.
President Muhammadu Buhari admitted this much in his acceptance speech after
being declared winner of the 2015 election. Tinubu however believes that
Buhari’s administration has not accorded to him recognition and influence
commensurate to his contribution in 2015. He was also frustrated by the
leadership that emerged in both Senate and House of Representatives against his
wishes, and he is also at war against party national chairman John Oyegun.
Tinubu said early this year
that if Buhari does not run in 2019, he will consider running himself. Tinubu
is the South West politician best placed to replicate Chief Moshood Abiola’s
1993 feat. He has firm control over his base and the Jagaban Borgu also has
deep reach into the North. His ambitions could however be complicated by the
further rise of his protégé, Osinbajo. This is especially true if Osinbajo
becomes substantive president before 2019.
Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso
Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso was
governor of Kano State from 1999-2003 and after losing his re-election bid in
2003, he bounced back as governor in 2011-2015. In-between he was Obasanjo’s
Defence Minister in 2003-07 and he is now a senator. During his governorship
tenure Kwankwaso gained a reputation nationally as a wunderkind who rapidly
churned out inventive social and infrastructural projects and created twenty
different higher institutions in Kano State. He also finished second to Buhari
in APC’s 2014 presidential primaries.
Since 2015 however,
in-fighting within the Kano State APC has greatly dented Kwankwaso’s political
standing. His own former deputy’s administration created a question mark around
Kwankwaso’s achievements and claimed that he left behind a huge debt and many
uncompleted projects. Even though the former governor is relatively low key in
the Senate, his Kwankwasiyya political movement is still very strong in Kano
and has spread its tentacles to other states. Some observers say that
Kwankwaso’s number one priority in 2019 is to deny Governor Abdullahi Umar
Ganduje a second term, a political project that he might place over and above
his presidential ambition.
Bukola Saraki
A former two-term governor
of Kwara State, former chairman of the Nigeria Governors Forum and current
Senate President, Abubakar Bukola Saraki aims to succeed where his father, the
late Senator Abubakar Olusola Saraki stopped just short. Saraki has defied
political gravity so far and would certainly fancy his chances of becoming
President, especially if the incumbent does not run. Saraki briefly entered
PDP’s presidential primaries in 2010 but bowed out when the Adamu Ciroma panel
adopted Atiku Abubakar as the sole Northern candidate to run against Goodluck
Jonathan. Saraki’s defection to APC in 2014 was a major contributor to the
party’s eventual success. He snatched the Senate Presidency against the wishes
of Buhari, Tinubu and APC leaders in 2015 and has kept the Senate remarkably
united behind himself with deft political moves since last year.
He has a loyal base in Kwara
State too, where Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed recognizes him as leader of the
ruling APC in Kwara State. Although he is wealthy, well known nationally and
has a firm control of his state, his presidential ambition is unpopular among
diehard Buhari supporters in the North, who see him as the effective
“opposition leader” to the Buhari presidency. APC loyalists also accuse Saraki
of anti-party activity, since PDP senators helped him to clinch the Senate
Presidency and still stand solidly behind him.
Sule Lamido
Former two-term governor of
Jigawa State Alhaji Sule Lamido has already commenced campaigning for the PDP
ticket ahead of 2019. In April last year he reportedly told newsmen in his
village, Bamaina in Birnin Kudu Local Government Area of the State, “If my party
finds me worthy of the party’s presidential ticket to serve Nigeria, I will
thank God and oblige.” Two weeks after he was released on bail from prison over
allegation of incitement preferred against him by the Jigawa State Government
in May this year Lamido unveiled his 2019 presidential bid during a dinner for
the 36 state chairmen of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) held in Abuja.
Lamido is one of the most experienced politicians in
Nigeria today, having been a prominent PRP member of the House of
Representatives in the Second Republic and was a leading member of the Social
Democratic Party (SDP) in the Third Republic. Lamido was also Obasanjo’s
Foreign Affairs Minister in 1999-2003. As governor of Jigawa, he earned kudos
for executing many worthwhile infrastructural projects including roads, airport
and a state university. Throughout his political career however, Lamido’s
reputation is that of a political hothead who is known for controversies and
ruffling political feathers. It might yet prove to be the quality PDP needs in
2019.
Nasir El Rufai
Former Minister of the
Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and current Governor of Kaduna State Malam
Nasir El Rufa’i is widely known to nurse ambitions to succeed Buhari as
president. The stint of this “accidental public servant” in national politics
and governance since 1999 has been a mixture of courage, inventiveness, epic
controversy and not a little dare devilry. As Director General of the Bureau of
Public Enterprises (BPE) in 1999-2003 he pursued privatisation of public
enterprises with great courage but also a lot of controversy. As Obasanjo’s FCT
Minister in 2003-07 el-Rufa’i innovatively sanitised Abuja but was accused of
insensitivity in demolishing slums and illegal buildings.
He was one of the pioneers
in APC’s formation in 2013 and he struck a very close relationship with his
former adversary Buhari, who encouraged and supported him to become the
governor of Kaduna State. As governor, el-Rufa’i is credited with dynamism but
also with epic controversy such as demolishing of houses that encroached school
quarters, sale of government quarters, a poorly executed school feeding
program, unending quarrels with political opponents and initially poor handling
of trouble in southern Kaduna State.
His opponents alleged that
el-Rufa’i was angling to become vice president if Buhari fails to complete his
term. Early this year a memo that the Kaduna governor wrote to Buhari providing
solutions to many national problems was leaked, allegedly by persons close to
Buhari who wanted to portray el-Rufa’i as overambitious. Nasiru el-Rufa’i’s
potentially biggest obstacle is zoning within APC, which could zone his North
West region out of 2019 presidential calculations even though it is the
country’s most populous region and also its most solidly pro-APC zone.
Everything considered, this man with a small body frame but giant intellect and
ambitions is a man to watch in 2019.
Kashim Shettima
Two months ago Borno State’s
Governor Kashim Shettima suddenly came under a sustained social media attack
from invisible quarters. Political pundits later traced the attacks to Atiku
Abubakar’s hyper-active media office, which they said identified him as a
likely obstacle in Atiku’s way. The non-controversial Shettima has not indicated
his ambition to run for the Presidency in 2019 though Danlami Kubo, Deputy
Speaker of Borno State Assembly, reportedly said earlier this year that
Governor Kashim Shettima should be considered as Nigeria’s future ruler.
According to pundits,
Atiku’s team calculated that if Buhari does not run in 2019, APC’s 24 state
governors would seize the initiative and insist that one of them should be the
next party leader. Within their ranks, they are likely to maintain the ticket
in the North, where most APC supporters are. Within the North, they could well
decide to zone the ticket to the North East since the populous North West zone
has produced many leaders since 1999 including President Yar’adua, former Vice
President Namadi Sambo and Buhari. APC has four serving governors in the North
East of which two are first termers. Of the second term governors, Shettima has
a much higher profile as a former top banker and university lecturer who
tackled his state’s devastating Boko Haram problem with courage and dynamism,
including efforts to rebuild shattered communities so that IDPs can return
home. He is also the chairman of the Northern States Governors Forum [NSGF] and
has recently been engaged in efforts to get Arewa Youth groups to cancel their
Igbo quit notice. It is for these reasons that this undeclared candidate is one
of the top men to watch in 2019.
Rochas Okorocha
Governor Okorocha is not new
at taking shots at the nation’s Presidency. In 1999, Okorocha competed in the
primaries to be PDP candidate for governor of Imo State but lost to Achike
Udenwa. He then moved to All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) but was unsuccessful
in his quest for the party’s ticket for the presidency in 2003 and thereafter
returned to PDP. Okorocha formed the Action Alliance (AA) in 2005, planning to
become its presidential candidate for the 2007 elections. He finished second to
Alhaji Umaru Yar’adua in PDP’s 2007 presidential primaries. After that Okorocha
decamped to All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), on which platform he won election
as governor of Imo State in 2011. He
then carried his APGA faction into APC in 2013.
Rochas Okorocha is chairman
of APC governors’ forum and does not hide his presidential ambitions. As APC’s
most prominent Igbo politician, his calculation is that he should get the
ticket when APC zones the presidency to Igboland in 2019 or 2023.
Ahmed Makarfi
Senator Ahmed Makarfi was
governor of Kaduna State from 1999 to 2007. Within the eight years he was in
office, he was able to mitigate religious and ethnic violence in the state and
has through that feat projected himself as an objective and fair-minded leader.
His outstanding performance in the state’s infrastructural development with his
sharp focus on rural roads, rural water and rural electrification shot him into
national limelight. Makarfi was a senator in 2007-15 where he chaired the
committee on Appropriation. Even though he lost the bid to return a third time
in 2015, his profile rose further when PDP governors and party members
appointed him Chairman of the party at a convention which held in Port-Harcourt
last year. Since then he had been battling for the position with former
governor of Borno State Ali Modu Sheriff, until recently when the Supreme Court
ruled in his favour.
Makarfi is expected to
relinquish the PDP chairmanship which has been zoned to the Southwest but he is
already a likely candidate for its presidential ticket, which was zoned to the
North, especially given the trust key members of the party, especially serving
governors, have in him.
Aminu Waziri Tambuwal
Governor of Sokoto State
Aminu Waziri Tambuwal is often mentioned as an important APC contender for
president if Buhari does not run in 2019. Tambuwal developed a wide national
reputation after he clinched the post of Speaker of the House of
Representatives in 2011 against the wishes of the ruling PDP and President
Goodluck Jonathan but with the full backing of ACN leader Asiwaju Bola Tinubu.
In four years he also kept the House remarkably united and became a prominent
voice on the national scene admired for his intellect and level-headedness.
Tambuwal fell out with
Jonathan and his wife, Patience over many issues and in late 2014 he defected
to APC. He did not contest the party’s presidential primaries but instead
picked its governorship ticket and became governor of Sokoto State. He is
however said to have lost Tinubu’s support because he supported Yakubu Dogara
to succeed him as Speaker against Tinubu’s candidate, current House Leader Femi
Gbajiamila. Still, Tambuwal is a visible option to succeed Buhari in 2019.
Source:Daily Trust
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Politics