In an encouraging indication of a
steady, even if slow progressive pace, the Nigerian economy is emerging out of
recession.
The 2017 Q1 GDP figures released
earlier today depict an overall picture showing the economy is emerging slowly
out of recession.
For instance, growth has continued
in agriculture and a notable positive turnaround has now been recorded in
manufacturing and non-oil sectors, while a slow down in negative growth rates
is noticed in several more sectors.
"The latest figures released by
the National Bureau of Statistics show that the economy shrank by 0.52% in the
first quarter of 2017 (Q1 2017).
Although the economy remains in
recession this is the strongest performance in five quarters and shows a
significant turnaround from the low of -2.34% reached in the third quarter of
2016 (Q3 2016).
This is nearly two percentage point
improvement and also reflects the fact that the number of sub-sectors that
experienced negative growth has almost halved falling from 29 sub-sectors for
the whole of 2016 to 16 sub-sectors in Q1 2017.
Agricultural growth remained in
positive territory albeit growing at a slower rate of about 3.4%, no doubt due
to seasonal factors.
Growth in manufacturing on the other
hand returned to positive territory after five quarters of negative growth. It grew by 1.36% in Q1 2017 after
falling to a nadir of -7.0% in Q1 2016.
The solid mineral sector continued
to justify the priority given to it by the Federal Government with high double
digit growth for metal ores and quarrying at 40.79% and 52.54% respectively.
Growth in the oil sector remained
negative at -11.64% although there was an over six percentage point improvement
in its fortunes from the previous quarter.
More significantly, the non-oil
sector which accounts for about 90% of GDP returned to positive growth although
at a marginal level of 0.72% in Q1 2017. This is the first positive growth in
the non-oil sector since the last quarter of 2015.
Headline inflation fell for the
third month in a row to 17.24%, with core inflation also declining quite
rapidly.
However, food inflation remains of
concern as it continues to trend upwards. This is mainly due to rising
transport costs and other structural impediments to the movement of foods in
the domestic market. The trade balance remained positive
reflecting import contraction and relatively higher export revenues which grew
year-on-year by up to 80.5%.
The overall picture that the figures
show is that the economy is emerging slowly out of recession.
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Business