The last time the people of Anambra voted on February 6, 2010, more than half of the voting population could not find their names in the voters’ register. At the end of the day, only about 300,000 people voted, just a little less than 20 per cent of the voting population.
But today, all the participants in the election have certified that the voters’ register is in good shape after several reviews by the Independent National Electoral Commission.
The race had been long and windy for most of the candidates. But at the end of the day 23 men, no woman, are on their marks, getting ready for the final dash across the finishing line today.
Up till Thursday last week, when the Supreme Court declared former student leader, Tony Nwoye as being eligible to contest, one of the major political parties, the Peoples Democratic Party, was not certain about whether it would eventually present a candidate for the election.
So, it turned out a relief for the PDP that finally, Nwoye would, would be its standard-bearer in the election. Whether the late entry would take a toll on the party’s performance in the election is a matter to be determined by the electorate. Some other political parties have issues similar to the PDP’s as there are subtle disputes over candidatures.
Issues that could shape the election
Four years ago, the issue of zoning of the governorship was not on the agenda. Of the six top contenders for the office of the governorship then, three of them; Dr. Chris Ngige (Action Congress), Peter Obi (All Progressives Grand Alliance) and Uche Ekwunife (Progressive Peoples Alliance) were from the Anambra Central Senatorial Zone, the other three, Prof. Chukwuma Soludo (Peoples Democratic Party), Andy Uba (Labour Party) and Nicholas Ukachukwu (Hope Democratic Party) were from the Anambra South Senatorial Zone; and this was not considered a serious issue during the election. In this election, however, zoning became prominent after the people of Anambra North Senatorial Zone declared that nobody from the zone had been elected governor since the state was created in 1991 Thus began the clamour for Anambra North to produce the governor.
Incidentally, Anambra North zone is the least developed in terms of infrastructure and human resources. Their leaders had reckoned that the zone’s limited access to government must have been responsible for the slow development of the area. They, therefore, moved that for them to support any political party such a party must zone its governorship candidacy to Anambra North.
After many meetings and declarations by political leaders from the zone, the state Governor, Peter Obi, was sold on the idea of Anambra North producing the next governor of the state.
He repeatedly explained that his position was in the interest of equity and fair play. After an initial resistance from some members of his party, the governor had his way and member of the party, Chief Willie Obiano, emerged at APGA candidate.
The PDP eventually elected its own candidate, Mr. Tony Nwoye, from Anambra North, a development that thrown the race wide open given the fact that the two other prominent candidates, Ngige and Ifeanyi Uba of the Labour Party come from Anambra Central and Anambra South respectively. Those who have argued against zoning have said that allotting the position of governor to zones in rotation could divide the state along sectional lines. They have also said that zoning had the potential of promoting mediocrity over merit. Also, they argued that zoning had never been an issue within Anambra political class, which had always contested the governorship of the state irrespective of zones.
‘Godfather politics’ also came up for debate during the electioneering. Apart from the candidate of the Labour Party, Ifeanyi Uba, and that of the Progressive Peoples Alliance, Godwin Ezeemo, who are believed to be personally funding their elections, virtually all the other candidates have godfather figures behind them.
Instructively, none of the candidates actually appeared with blueprints on how to end the major concerns of the people, which are mainly insecurity, provision of water and poor state of roads.
At a point the campaigns degenerated into mudslinging and destruction of the campaign posters and billboards of opposing candidates.
Then came the political debates organised by broadcast organisations and interest groups in the state. These debates exposed the public speaking capabilities of the candidates.
At the end of the campaigns, certain messages came out about the agenda of the five leading candidates. Obiano of APGA kept emphasising his resolve to continue with the programmes of Governor Peter Obi anchored on the Anambra Integrated Development Strategy. He, however, added a four-sector development agenda anchored on industrialisation, agriculture, oil and gas and education.
Ngige of APC, who was governor between 2003 and 2006, anchored his campaign on the need to return him as governor to complete the developmental programmes, he initiated when he was governor. Ubah of the LP promised to deploy his entrepreneurial skills to attract development to the state, a similar campaign approach by Ezeemo of PPA.
The PDP candidate, Tony Nwoye, whose candidacy was only secured barely a week before the election, scarcely made out a programme of action. He did not participate in any of the political debates. His camp spent most of the time left consulting traditional rulers, opinion leaders and the respective leaders of their town unions. Whichever way the people vote today will depend on the sentiments of where the candidate comes from, political party affiliation and pecuniary factors. While the Catholic Church played an influential role in past elections, the Church’s influence might not make much difference this time around because all the top contenders are Catholics who have contributed substantial support to the church.
Chances of the major contenders
To many observers, the election is too close to call. Some people have predicted that the winner might not emerge at the first ballot, given that the eventual winner will not only have to win the majority of votes cast, but will also have to have a spread of votes, winning at least 25 per cent of the votes in 14 of the 21 local government areas. The way it looks, it is only the PDP and APGA candidates that can have the needed spread given the nature of their support base, which cuts across the entire state. APC looks good to garner huge votes and if it wins the majority vote, its win might be flawed in spread of votes. APC’s candidate has a cult following among the masses, he is most popular in the two Idemili local government areas, which incidentally have the highest voting populations.
Banking on the incumbency factor, Obiano of APGA could come out with a good spread of votes and he is expected to lead in local governments like Anaocha, where the governor comes from, Anambra West, Ogbaru, Onitsha North, Onitsha South, Awka North, Njikoka and one of the Orumba local government areas. Anambra East where both the PDP and APGA candidates come from could be fairly shared by the two parties. The PDP candidate, Nwoye is blessed with a large membership base of the PDP which is spread across the state. He is most likely to win in Ayamelum, Oyi, Dunukofia and Ihiala. The divisions within the ranks of the party may create problems for him in Nnewi South and Aguata.
The Labour Party candidate, Mr. Ifeanyi Ubah, is very likely to win in his home local government, Nnewi North and Ekwusigo. He will have sprinkling of votes across a few other local government areas, considering that his party has little traditional support bases across the state. The fifth candidate is Godwin Ezeemo, who has been very active in the field and whose philanthropic gestures might win him some good support from the voters. But his impact may not be very strong, even in his home local government, Aguata.
Significance
The governorship election in Anambra State is significant for a number of reasons. One of them is that it is one state where the influence and clout of the ruling party at the federal level, the PDP, has been cut down drastically. In the last election held on February 6, 2010, the PDP came a distant third behind the Action Congress of Nigeria and the All Progressives Grand Alliance. In other states, it has been PDP winning or coming second.
Curiously, PDP is the party from which virtually all the other parties emerged following irreconcilable differences within the ranks of the party.
Since 2003, the governorship election in Anambra State has always presented a keen contest among four or more parties, thus giving the electorate a wide range of choices to make.
In 2003, it was APGA represented by Peter Obi, ANPP represented by George Muoghalu, Alliance for Demcoracy represented by the then Governor Chinwoke Mbadinuju and PDP represented by Dr. Chris Ngige. The election was manipulated in favour of the PDP. But the court reversed that three years later and declared Obi the winner. Since then the governorship election in Anambra State has elicited passionate attention.
Home to some the world’s most creative entrepreneurs, Anambra, however, presents a picture a poorly governed state, whose abundant human and material resources had often fallen in the hands of wrong managers.
Former Vice-President Alex Ekwueme, who is one of the founding founders of Nigeria’s present democracy and a prominent citizen of the state when asked to identify the problem with Anambra State, said: “Anambra State is all chiefs, no Indians.” It is an indication that there cannot be an effective leadership in a community where everyone considers themselves good enough to lead, and not to follow. The incumbent governor, Peter Obi, shocked by the parlous state of affairs in Anambra since it was created raised a poser in his campaign posters in 2003; “Is Anambra Cursed; or Are We the Cause?” The eight years he spent governing the state would have given him an answer, which he is yet to make public.
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