Transforming the Nigerian Economy: A Midterm Report Of GEJ By Anthony Ubani

It is now two years since President Jonathan vowed to transform the Nigerian economy. In the beginning he promised to make Nigeria a better place and a global economic power, using the 2012-2015 Medium Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF) and Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) as the linchpin. Apart from setting up clear-cut guidelines for the four-year fiscal regime, the economic blueprint also recommends prudent management of the nation’s wealth to free up more funds for infrastructure projects and other developmental purposes. 

Two years down the road, how far has he travelled and how well has he fared? While delivering his 2012 budget address before the National Assembly, President Jonathan gave us a clearer insight as to the economic strategy of his government which is premised on the new fiscal framework, “My government is determined to pursue policies that will ensure a stable macroeconomic environment through a strong and prudent fiscal policy, manageable deficits, sustainable debt-GDP ratio of no more than 30%, and single digit inflation, thereby promoting real growth. We believe that these measures would engender a stable and competitive exchange rate and help to reverse the declining trend of our international reserves.” Incidentally, this speech and the specific promises contained therein gives us a clear set of economic indicators and benchmarks on the basis of which we can attempt an empirical assessment of Mr. President’s economic performance within the framework of the implementation of the transformation agenda in the last 24 months.

In spite of the opposition scare mongering, Nigeria’s economy has been resiliently climbing the ladder of progress. Indeed, the numbers and the story they tell speak eloquently of the positive dividends of adroit economic management. Today, Nigeria has, for the first time in history overtaken South Africa in terms of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). In January 2013 alone, Nigeria received over 800 billion naira in FDI which represents an impressive increase of 48%. What this means is that, the confidence of the international investment community in the Nigerian economy is growing and Nigeria is as a result now the preferred destination in the African continent for FDI. This is a historic and transformative achievement. 

More exciting is the fact that, as a consequence of the compelling performance of the Nigerian economy, economists who had earlier predicted that the Nigeria economy will overtake the South African economy by 2050 are now revising their forecasts to suggest that the feat can actually be achieved as early as 2015. 

Currently, Nigeria’s foreign reserves stand at an outstanding 48 billion dollars, the highest in Nigeria’s contemporary history. Meanwhile, growth in the first quarter is up from 6.2 to 6.5%. Inflation is down to single digit while fiscal deficit is just 1.8% of GDP. These numbers become even more compelling when we realize that they were achieved in spite of the distracting, disturbing and destabilizing impact of the orchestrated terror acts of the boko haram terrorist sect. 

Analysts are agreed that the Jonathan administration deserves high praise for its single minded pursuit and success in achieving macro-economic stability even under the current difficult security environment. The resilience, dynamism and robustness which the Nigerian economy has shown even in the face of a global financial crisis and a local terrorist insurgency is not a coincidence but a direct result of focused and meticulous management of the economy by the Jonathan administration. If we are to end our discourse on this note, we will easily hand President Jonathan an excellent score on the economic front. But let us go beyond the impressive macro-economic performance and assess progress in the critical sectors of the economy. 

Power
The seriousness and passion which President Jonathan has brought to bear on the reform of the power sector is only matched by the quality and quantity of successes already recorded, significant amongst which are: Setting up of the Presidential Task Force on Power and the revitalisation of the NIPP projects which are set to be completed in June 2013 and are projected to add an estimated 10,000mw to the grid by 2014.

Privatisation of existing grid assets which have seen the Nigerian power system now been unbundled into one Transmission Company, six generation companies (GenCos) and 11 distribution companies (DisCos). The six GenCos and 11 DisCos are now in the process of being privatised pursuant to the government’s revitalized reform process.

The Nigeria Electricity Bulk Trading Company Limited (the Bulk electricity
Trader) has been established as a government owned trader with bulk purchase and resale licences. The Bulk Electricity Trader will enter into what are intended to be industry acceptable and financeable power purchase agreements (PPAs) with IPPs and other GenCos (including the newly privatized GenCos).

The implementation of a gas master-plan strategic framework to tackle the perennial challenge of lack of an adequate and consistent supply of gas to fuel the power sector. In this regard, the Jonathan administration successfully set up the Gas Aggregation Company Nigeria Limited (the Gas Aggregator) to manage the government’s domestic gas supply obligations. 

Through the Nigerian Electricity Regulation Commission, a new uniform tariff — MYTO — has been established and is currently undergoing a major review. The new myto platform has enhanced efficiency and transparency in the electric power tariff regime. With billions of naira in investment backed by strong political will and leadership, diligent planning, supervision and oversight, Nigerians are already experiencing tangible results with respect to improvements in power supply and major reductions in power outages. Critics of President Jonathan will be remiss not to acknowledge the giant strides that have been recorded since the commencement of implementation of the robust Roadmap for Power Sector Reform. Today, generated electric power stands at about 4500mw, the highest ever in Nigeria. Homes and businesses can testify to the improving power situation. Against all odds, Nigeria is on the verge of permanently resolving its power sector crisis.

Petroleum
Akin to power is the petroleum sector. For the first time in decades, Nigerians have forgotten the pain of long fuel queues occasioned by perennial fuel scarcity. Petrol, diesel and gas are now regularly available to the satisfaction of Nigerians. Reforms in the arbitrary petroleum subsidy regime has not only engendered transparency and efficiency in the system but has generated significant savings for government. It is gratifying to note that the savings from the subsidy regime reforms is what President Jonathan has invested in establishing the hugely successful Subsidy Reinvestment Program popularly known as SURE-P. 

Transport
The transport sector has witnessed and is still witnessing significant transformation. At a time most Nigerians of my generation have given up hope of ever experiencing again the delight of a train ride in Nigeria in their lifetime, the Jonathan administration positively surprised all Nigerians by launching the 700 miles Lagos – Kano rail route. The economic and commercial benefits of the now functional train service from Lagos to Kano is inestimable. This feat has given Nigerians hope that it is indeed possible with committed leadership to bring the trains fully back in Nigeria. Feasibility studies are already being concluded as a prelude to opening up other commercially viable train routes across the country.

Within the vital aviation transport sub sector, Nigerians Fight Corruptions are united in their praise for the major facelift and upgrade of facilities at airport terminals and runways across the country are receiving. For the first time in over two decades our dilapidated airports which were no more than eyesores have now received much overdue rehabilitation to bring them up to minimum standards. 

Also for the first time in history, we can now boast of total Radar coverage of Nigeria’s Airspace. All of these improvements in airspace safety have yielded worthwhile dividends. The aviation subsector, within the last two years, has witnessed the lowest incidents of air mishaps and as if to acknowledge the giant strides of the Jonathan administration in aviation safety, Nigeria attained CAT 1 status in aviation safety in 2011. This has made it possible for the first time for four airlines to be certified to operate direct flights from Nigeria to the United States of America. What’s more President Jonathan has just recently fulfilled his campaign promise of giving the South East zone its first befitting international airport. 

Agriculture
In agriculture, the story of transformation is even more exciting and encouraging. Under the platform of the transformation agenda, the Jonathan administration launched the first ever database of farmers in the country, which has also for the first time provided hard data for planning purposes. This database has since grown from an initial 4.2 million farmers in 2012 and is projected to exceed 9 million farmers before the end of 2013. 

The massive and festering corruption in the fertilizer sector which has existed for over forty years was vigorously tackled and brought to an end within the first three months of the Jonathan administration. The solution was simple, imaginative and brilliant. The Jonathan administration simply took government out of the procurement and distribution of fertilizers and seeds. In its stead, technology was brought into play. For the first time in Nigeria, farmers were reached directly using the power of mobile phones put in their hands. Farmers received subsidised seeds and fertiliser vouchers on their mobile phones (electronic or e-wallets) which they use just like cash to buy inputs directly from the agro-dealers. With this, Nigeria became the first country in Africa to launch an electronic wallet system for the delivery of subsidised inputs to farmers. 

It is gratifying and compelling to note that just within one year, the e-wallet system has already reached a total of 1.7 million farmers and is on course to reach an additional 5 million farmers In 2013. This new efficient and transparent system has expanded private sector opportunities and created new business opportunities for Nigerians. The records show that fertilizer companies actually sold an estimated $100 million worth of fertilizers directly to farmers, instead of the government. Within the period under review, seed companies sold $10 million worth of seeds directly to farmers. Banks lent $20 million to seed, fertilizer companies and agro-dealers. Interestingly, in all these transactions, government has recorded zero percent default. 

More than at any other time in the history of Nigeria, farmers are being actively empowered and this is yielding great results in food production. As a direct result of the transformative agriculture policies of the Jonathan administration, Nigerian farmers produced an additional food supply of 8.1 million metric tonnes within the period under review. This incredible feat represents an astonishing 71% increase above the target set for the program in the first year.

Under the Jonathan administration, Nigeria is well on course with its policy to become self-sufficient in rice production by 2015. Within the past year, 14 new private sector integrated rice mills have come on stream, with total capacity of 240,000 MT (160,000 MT of milled rice). This on its own reflects tremendous confidence of investors in government’s agriculture policy. The same level of success is also been recorded in cassava production. The strategy here is to turn Nigeria, which is the largest producer of cassava in the world, into the largest processor of cassava in the world.

Overall, the Jonathan administration’s focus on driving agriculture as a business is paying off good dividends. Within the last one year alone, government has secured over $8 billion in private sector investment commitments to the agricultural sector and 2 million farm jobs has been created within the rural areas of Nigeria. Put together, it is clear that the Jonathan administration’s Agriculture Transformation Agenda (ATA), which has the capacity to generate over 3.5 million jobs, ensure food security and create wealth including 11 commodity value chains and huge increase in food production, is very well on course to achieving its set targets. 

Education
Transformation in the education sector began from the onset with President Jonathan’s first budget. “In keeping with my stated principle of promising less and delivering more, I, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, in breaking with the past have in the first budgest presented while I am President allocated the lion’s share of N933,480 billion to Education. This is three times what was allocated to the next highest sector, Defence, at N313,769 billion.” With this transformative move, funding ceased to be the number one challenge to the growth of education in Nigeria.

It is the same need for even better funding of the sector that informed the establishment of intervention agencies such as the Tertiary Education Trust Fund. On funding, President Jonathan is the first Nigerian President to demonstrate a clear commitment to attaining the actualisation of the 26 per cent minimum allocation to education, a benchmark recommended by the United Nations Education, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO).

With an education sector that was broken and needing emergency expert attention and with the coming of Nigeria’s first President with a PH.D, Nigerians expected urgent and solemn attention to education from President Jonathan. And that is exactly what they are getting from a President who understands the principal place of human capital development in any serious developmental initiative. As an educationist, President Jonathan knows that education is the wheel that will drive his transformation agenda in the social, economic and political facets of Nigeria. 
The Jonathan administration has successfully initiated the Integrated Almajiri Education Scheme which is designed to integrate the Islamic system to provide quality education to the target population. The policy framework for this innovative approach to education focuses on two critical levels. First, is the rationalisation of the existing traditional system of Islamic education with a view to addressing existing problems and challenges, consolidating achievements and expanding opportunities for the growth and development of the system. Second, is the mainstreaming and promotion of a dynamic Almajiri Education Model, which seeks to integrate effectively Islamic disciplines and conventional school subjects, instil values and morals; provide dual language competency in English and Arabic; and cultivate a culture of educational excellence.

In the area of ensuring standards and quality assurance, the Jonathan administration has directly worked on the improvement of the capacity of teachers in the basic education sector. Over half a million teachers have received training from the federal government-initiated programmes in collaboration with state governments. Government have also worked out different strategies to get books directly to children. 

The Jonathan administration has also established ten new federal universities with at least one located in each of the six geo-political zones of the country. Furthermore, In August 2011, the federal executive council approved two bills on university standards so as to regulate the quality of academic programmes in Nigerian universities.

The achievement of the Millennium Development goals (MDG) 2- “Achieve Universal Primary and Junior Secondary Education” and (MDG); 3- “Eliminate gender disparities in education by 2015,” which are major components of the education transformation framework have received merited attention from government. To this end, the Jonathan administration through the National Teachers’ Institute, Kaduna, trained well over 40, 000 primary and secondary schools teachers across the nation in the last 12 months under the 2012 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) teacher-training programme. 

The focus now in the education sector is no longer on budgetary allocations. Attention has shifted to donor and bilateral support to move the education sector to the next level of transformation. In this regard, the Jonathan administration has recorded impressive successes. Government is partnering with international development agencies to actualise specific aspects of the MDGs. Only last year, the Japanese government handed over to the federal government 33 schools comprising 77 buildings and 317classrooms for basic education, sited in Kano State. The N2.31billion project, which was donated by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), is aimed at cementing the bilateral relationship between the two countries. 

Today, Nigeria’s education system is back on the path of growth, thanks to President Jonathan’s foresight and political will. If the evidence of success achieved in the education sector within two years is anything to go by, then it is easy to infer that the future of education in Nigeria is bright.

In all, there is virtually no sector that President Jonathan’s Transformation agenda has not impacted. For the first time in Nigeria, women have met the recommended 35% percent representation in governance positions. Transparency and the rule of law is not just mouthed but is practiced at the heart of government business. The FOI bill has been signed into law by President Jonathan. The moribund textile industry has been thrown a life line and Nollywood has been given an adrenalin shot in the arm. With the declaration of state of emergency in three north eastern states, security of lives and property has been stepped up a notch and the possibility of peace in the north now hovers on the horizon. For the first time in decades, the judiciary under President Jonathan’s watch is pursuing a holistic reform program and house cleaning exercise to restore the integrity of the bench. 

It is a trite fact to aver that against all odds, natural and contrived, President Jonathan has recorded giant strides in the management of Nigeria’s economy within the first two years of his Presidency. The hope now is that, he will, working with his economic management team, move to consolidate on the economic gains made and address grey areas in the economy where challenges still abound.

Anthony Ubani, is former Director General, Peoples Democratic (Party) Institute (PDI), Abuja 




CKN NEWS

Chris Kehinde Nwandu is the Editor In Chief of CKNNEWS || He is a Law graduate and an Alumnus of Lagos State University, Lead City University Ibadan and Nigerian Institute Of Journalism || With over 2 decades practice in Journalism, PR and Advertising, he is a member of several Professional bodies within and outside Nigeria || Member: Institute Of Chartered Arbitrators ( UK ) || Member : Institute of Chartered Mediators And Conciliation || Member : Nigerian Institute Of Public Relations || Member : Advertising Practitioners Council of Nigeria || Fellow : Institute of Personality Development And Customer Relationship Management || Member and Chairman Board Of Trustees: Guild Of Professional Bloggers of Nigeria

7 Comments

  1. hey! i dey laugh ooo. in fact laugh wan kill me die... am not sure if this guy knws dat Nigerian Politechnics re on strike for over a month. right now i no get light for my area. agriculture wetin? if i hear say.... garri got to its high price ever this year. a plastic of garri is now 450/500naira. kerosene don cost like "mad". in fact i dey waste my time responding to this article.

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  2. The guy is mad. God will punish u all. Paper achievement. Nigerians shld react to this

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  3. Fools will always talk first,goodlucky is working

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    1. Fools are not blind,deaf or dumbs they also feel.I am sure U are not settled yet but talking based on expectation.
      We the typical normal Nigerians are yet to come out of the shock that a sane Nigerian can post this trash for us to read.

      Delete
  4. Is a pity that Nigerians believe so much in press politics ,rather than making monumental achievements that can stand the test of time.

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  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  6. Kudos to GEJ team, I was impressed wwith the report as read by Mrs Okono Iweala but the govt need to keep it up by doing more. Detractors will never see any good in the report because of politics or ethnicity or cheer mischief

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