Most Americans
suspect that President Obama was
motivated by politics, not policy, when he declared his support for same-sex
marriage, according to a poll released on Monday, suggesting that
the unplanned way it was announced shaped public attitudes.
Sixty-seven
percent of those surveyed by The New York Times and CBS News since the
announcement said they thought that Mr. Obama had made it “mostly for political
reasons,” while 24 percent said it was “mostly because he thinks it is right.”
Independents were more likely to attribute it to politics, with nearly half of
Democrats agreeing.
The
results reinforce the concerns of White House aides and Democratic strategists
who worried that the sequence of events leading up to the announcement last
week made it look calculated rather than principled.
Mr.
Obama, who had said since late 2010 that his position on the issue was
“evolving,” finally proclaimed his support for same-sex marriage only
after Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. did so first in a television
interview.
“If
Biden hadn’t said something, I don’t think he would have said anything either,”
Larry Gannon, 48, a graphic artist from Norwalk, Calif. and an independent,
said in a follow-up interview.
Holly
Wright, 67, an independent from Smithfield, Va., who works in the food
industry, said she believed that Mr. Obama had concluded that more Americans
approved of same-sex marriage. “He believes it will help him win the election,”
she said. “In other words, say what the majority of the people want to hear.”
The
survey results made it clear that the president was wading into a divisive area
of American life, one that may not top the nation’s priority list but still has
the potential to hurt him at the margins in elections in November. About 4 in
10, or 38 percent, of Americans support same-sex marriage, while 24 percent
favor civil unions short of formal marriage. Thirty-three percent oppose any
form of legal recognition. When civil unions are eliminated as an option,
opposition to same-sex marriage rises to 51 percent, compared with 42 percent
support.
The
poll showed that relatively few voters consider same-sex marriage their top
issue amid continued economic uncertainty, and more than half said it would
make no difference in their choice for president. But among those who said Mr.
Obama’s position would influence their vote, more said they would be less
likely to vote for him as a result; in a close race, even a small shift in
swing states could be costly.
The
political consequences of the president’s announcement have absorbed
Washington, with strategists on all sides poring through data to try to
anticipate what it might mean in the fall. Many surveys have shown rising
support nationally for same-sex marriage, especially among younger Americans.
However, voters in more than 30 states have passed measures banning such
unions, most recently those in North Carolina last
week.
Mr.
Obama’s team is counting on the notion that whatever he might lose in votes or
intensity of support will be offset by increased excitement among young voters
and his liberal base. His probable Republican opponent, Mitt Romney, a former
governor of Massachusetts, is banking on the idea that Mr. Obama’s position
will turn off enough supporters of traditional marriage, including
African-Americans, to help tip the race his way.
The
situation remains so uncertain in part because, as the poll showed, the public
is deeply conflicted on the issue. Consider the responses to two questions:
Just 32 percent said the federal government should determine whether same-sex
marriage is legal, rather than leaving it to the states. But 50 percent favored
an amendment to the federal Constitution allowing marriage only between a man
and a woman and overruling state laws to the contrary.
Mr.
Obama’s endorsement of same-sex marriage appeared to have little effect on
Americans’ view of the issue. More influential seems to be the increasing
familiarity with people who are gay and lesbian. In a 2003 Times/CBS News poll,
44 percent of respondents said they had a colleague at work, close friend or
relative who was gay, compared with 69 percent in the latest poll. Those who
did were more likely to support legalizing same-sex marriage than those who did
not.
“I
might have been against it a long time ago, but then after meeting people who
were gay, I changed my mind and had a different position,” said John Cornett,
70, a Democrat in Georgetown, Ky.
The
new nationwide poll is based on telephone interviews conducted from May 11
through 13 on landlines and cellphones with 615 adults.
With
less than six months until the election, Mr. Obama remains in a tight race with
Mr. Romney. A month ago, a Times/CBS News poll showed the two tied at 46 percent each; the latest survey
had the Republican challenger at 46 percent to the president’s 43 percent, an
edge that was within the margin of sampling error of plus or minus four
percentage points.
Mr.
Obama’s vulnerable standing in the poll came despite rising optimism about the
economy. About a third of voters said it was very or fairly good, the most
since January 2008. More than a third said it was getting better, compared with
a quarter who said it was getting worse. Jobs and the economy remain by far the
most dominant issue, with 62 percent naming it their top priority and 19
percent their second highest. By contrast, just 7 percent chose same-sex
marriage as the most important issue and 4 percent as the second-most
important.
While
most respondents said the candidates’ position on the issue would not affect
their vote, about 4 in 10 said it would, and that played against Mr. Obama.
Twenty-six percent of respondents said they were less likely to support Mr.
Obama as a result, while 16 percent said they were more likely to. Many of
those who described themselves as less likely to vote for Mr. Obama were
Republicans who might not have anyway, but in a tight race, even small numbers
can matter.
The
sample size of the new poll was too small to break out comparisons by race, but
aggregating four Times/CBS News surveys that asked the question over the last
year opens a window into a racial dynamic that could be challenging for Mr.
Obama.
Over all, black and
white Americans divided on same-sex marriage in roughly similar numbers. But
black Democrats were more skeptical than white Democrats. Forty-five percent of
white Democrats supported legalizing marriage for gay couples, compared with 36
percent of black Democrats, while 35 percent of black Democrats opposed any
legal recognition, compared with 28 percent of white Democrats.